Bobi Wine has challenged President Yoweri Museveni for the second time

As Ugandans go to the polls next week they face a choice of pushing a leader into his fifth decade in power or supporting a candidate who seeks to capitalize on the desire for change from some quarters.

President Yoweri Museveni, 81, in office since 1986, is seeking a seventh consecutive election victory.

His main challenger, pop-star-turned-politician Bobi Wine, 43, has promised a revolution in governance and reforms.

The campaign was marked by the disruption of opposition activities, including the suppression of activists and the breaking up of rallies by the police.

With high youth unemployment rates in a country where the majority of the population is under 30, the economy has become a key concern of the campaign.

The poll is scheduled for Thursday 15 January. Polls will open at 07:00 local time (04:00 GMT) and close at 16:00. Anyone in line at that time will be allowed to vote.

21.6 million registered voters will participate in three elections:

• Presidential – there are eight candidates to choose from
• Parliamentary (1) – 353 constituency MPs will be elected
• Parliamentary (2) – 146 female representatives – one per local district – will be elected

Museveni and Bobi Wine top the all-male list of eight hopefuls.

This is the second time they have faced each other at the ballot box, where the president won the 2021 poll, marred by allegations of fraud and a crackdown on the opposition, with 58% of the vote compared to Bobi Wine’s 35%.

Yoweri Museveni – National Resistance Movement (NRM)

Museveni first took power by force 40 years ago as the leader of a guerrilla army that promised to restore democracy after years of civil war and the dictatorship of Idi Amin.

Once celebrated as part of a new generation of African leaders set to usher in a new democratic era, growing accusations of human rights abuses and harassment of opposition figures have soured that view.

Critics say he has ruled with an iron fist since he seized control and went back on promises to step down, the only president most Ugandans know.

Currently Africa’s third longest-serving leader, Museveni has benefited from two constitutional changes – removing age and term limits – that allow him to continue running for office.

He argued that he remains the only guarantee of the country’s stability and development.

Bobi Wine – National Unity Platform (NUP)

One-time hit maker Bobi Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, is widely thought to be the strongest of the seven opposition candidates.

Dubbed at one point the “ghetto president”, he was seen as embodying the youth’s aspirations for change and he enjoyed strong support among young, urban, working-class voters.

Bobi Wine established himself as a serious contender five years ago, coming in second and helping Museveni to the lowest share of the vote in any election he contested. Bobi Wine’s NUP party became the largest opposition force in parliament.

Since that vote, Bobi Wine has continued to face harassment from the security forces.

Other candidates are Frank Bulira, Robert Kasibante, Joseph Mabirizi, Brought Mafabi, husband and Mubarak Munyagwa.

Prominent opposition figure Kizza Besigyewho four times ran against Museveni, could not participate and remained in prison on treason charges after who was arrested in neighboring Kenya in 2024. He denies any wrongdoing.

Economic issues, especially unemployment, weigh heavily on the minds of many as they prepare to vote.

The average income per person has been slowly but steadily rising since the pandemic but there don’t seem to be enough jobs to match the surging number of young people looking for work.

There are also concerns about poor infrastructure and disparities in access to quality education and health care.

However, the country has managed to avoid the rise in the cost of living that has affected many other countries in the region and led to pressure on those in power.

Corruption is another major concern.

Uganda ranks 140th out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s annual Corruption Perceptions Index, with widespread bribery and nepotism reported in government institutions.

The conduct of elections in Uganda is often criticized. This time round officials said the vote would be free and fair but UN experts warned that may not be the case, citing what they described as a “pervasive climate of fear” in Uganda.

During the campaign, opposition supporters faced increasing harassment, including arrests on politically motivated charges, rights groups said.

Bobi Wine’s rallies, unlike Museveni’s, were disrupted by security forces.

Amnesty International described the use of tear gas, pepper spray, beatings, and other violent acts as “a brutal campaign of repression” before the vote.

The government said the measures were necessary to ensure a peaceful election and prevent anyone from inciting riots on polling day.

Coming to the election itself, Bobi Wine urged the voters to stay at the polling stations and take care of their ballots to avoid vote fraud.

But election officials said people should vote peacefully and then leave, assuring that vote counting would be transparent and observed by party agents, media and election monitors. However, critics questioned the independence of the election commission.

Despite the government’s denials, there are also fears, based on previous experience, of an internet shutdown during the election aimed at preventing people from verifying the results. The NUP says it has a vote-monitoring app that can overcome this issue by using Bluetooth technology.

Counting of votes must begin at each polling station as soon as voting ends with the results eventually being transmitted to a central tallying center.

A candidate must gain more than 50% of the votes nationwide to win the presidency in the first round, otherwise there will be a run-off within 30 days between the top two candidates.

Museveni always gets more than 50% in the initial round of voting.