Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the US-backed former shah, has called on Iranians to sing together against the country’s leader on Thursday and Friday at 8pm local time (8pm Eastern). Whether a large number of people answer his call can decide whether it is fatal, 12 days of protests as previous unrest has been, or grow into a major challenge to the government and possibly lead to a wider crackdown.
“My dear countrymen, I have closely watched your demonstrations over the past week, especially the ones taking place today in Tehran’s bazaars,” Pahlavi said in a video posted on social media on Tuesday.
“Despite the regime continuous violent repressionyou’re resisting, and it’s inspiring,” Pahlavi said. “You’ve certainly noticed and seen that larger crowds have repeatedly driven regime forces to flight and even increased desertions to the people. Therefore, it is essential to keep these demonstrations disciplined, and as large as possible. This Thursday and Friday, January 8 and 9, starting at 8:00 p.m., wherever you are, on the street or in your homes, I call you to start singing at this exact time. Based on your response, I will announce the next calls for action.”
Some analysts and Iranian insiders believe this could be a decisive moment.
“It looks like the mass exodus today and tomorrow could be a turning point,” Mona Yacoubian, senior adviser and director of the Middle East Program, told CBS News on Thursday. “This is a regime that is not afraid to use lethal force. But the point is, to what extent they are exceeded, the protests are extremely large and whether there are elements in the security forces, the police, etc., at the local level, who are suffering the consequences of this economic crisis and who decide not to shoot people: I think these are the questions we need.”
Reuters/Social media 
Another longtime observer of the regime inside the country, referring to Pahlavi’s call, said in comments written to CBS News on Thursday that “the moment we’re all waiting for is tonight at 8 p.m. … If there’s widespread participation — it can’t be ruled out — it could be a turning point.”
“If the singing at 8:00 PM is very loud – deafening, and in chorus, and striking (that is, it is impossible for the authorities to ignore it), then from Friday it will be accepted that the protests are a real force and will gain strength – and then we are heading towards the unknown”, they said.
Yacoubian said Iran’s current protests differed from recent widespread demonstrations that swept the country over the 2022 death of a young woman in police custody accused of violating strict dress codes because they are based on economic issues.
“In 2022, the regime can directly respond to the demands of the protesters by simply addressing their complaints about the veiling of women and so on,” Yacoubian said. “There was a lot of violence. A lot of people were killed. But the truth is, you’ve seen these kinds of social strictures very significant in Iran.”
Despite relaxing some of the rules governing people’s daily behavior, sanctions-hit Iran’s severe economic problems were enough to spark the current wave of unrest, which, despite various measures to appease protesters, has continued to spread across the country.
Fars News Agency via AP 
Yacoubian said the Iranian government had no meaningful way to assuage the current protesters’ concerns about Iran’s economy.
“In the case of these economically motivated protests, there’s really nothing (the regime) can do to address the kind of concerns and public disaffection driven by a completely failed and collapsing economy,” Yacoubian said.
Another potential factor is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s interest in further targeting Iran’s ballistic missile program at a time of perceived weakness in the Tehran regime.
“It’s a completely different dynamic that has nothing to do with those protests, but frankly, even if there were no protests and you were to ask me, I would say, look, I think it’s very possible that we’re going to see a second conflict between Israel and Iran,” Yacoubian said.
Iran’s leaders, “I’m sure, understand very clearly all the pressure points, both domestic and foreign, and maybe that’s why they’re not very well, they’re really reading, probably well, the situation and they don’t seem to have a good plan on how to manage the unrest.”