Europe’s top-performing blue-chip stocks are expected to be acquired by a larger partner in 2025, in a deal analysts say could be worth as much as $23 billion.
AbivaxThe French clinical-stage biotech company, which is developing treatments for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, has seen shares rise 1,681% in the past year. Stoxx 600 index the second best performing stock is a mining company Fresnillothat’s a 453% increase.
Now, the big question for analysts is when Abivax will announce the deal, not if.
Listed in 2015, the stock was mostly between 10 and 20 euros, but it only rose after 10 years.. Shares surged 510% in a day after Abivax announced results from a late-stage trial of the ulcerative colitis drug in July, beating even the most optimistic expectations. After results like these, this could be a strategic acquisition for any big pharma company with an immunology and inflammation franchise.
AbivaxThe lead single agent, obefazimod, was first developed as a treatment for HIV, but researchers have discovered that its anti-inflammatory effects may work for others. conditions such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and clinical trials have begun.
Shares rallied even more in December after rumors surfaced about the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical company. Eli Lilly, Intended to buy Abivax. Both companies have repeatedly declined to comment on business development measures.
A close deal?
Analysts say a deal could happen any time now.
Sebastian van der Schot, an analyst at Van Lanschot Kempen, told CNBC that biotechs often have “relatively few employees and no experience in selling drugs,” which he called a “completely different ball game” for development.
“That’s why pharma is releasing them to actually use their infrastructure,” he said.
The analyst said he expects Abivax to trade now and where it will before the annual JP Morgan Healthcare conference on Monday, when rumors of the Abivax acquisition first surfaced. where companies often announce big deals.
Abivax shares rose in 2025, far outperforming their European peers.
It comes like Big Pharma made deals stronger in recent months as the sector faces a patent cliff where some of the world’s best-selling drugs will lose exclusivity in the coming years.
Another factor that creates the possibility of a deal Abivax CEO Marc de Garidelreputation as a deal-making leader. He previously led billion dollar acquisitions of biotech firms for pharmaceutical companies AstraZeneca and New Nordisk.
Asked about the potential acquisition, Garidel told CNBC’s “European Early Edition” in December that the company has always been “A conversation with Big Pharma“but his role was to make the best medicine.
Abivax plans to file for regulatory approval in the U.S. by the end of 2026, anticipating a possible launch in the third quarter of 2027, de Garidel said.
The company is well-positioned to strike a favorable deal with a Big Pharma partner, Stifel analyst Damien Choplain said.
“Given the strength of the Phase III results and relative asset scarcity, we believe the transaction can be completed prior to the maintenance data readout, which is expected in Q2 2026,” he said, referring to the second clinical trial of obefazimod, which will test its efficacy at 44 weeks as opposed to eight weeks.
Choplen said most of the transactions in the IBD space have been in earlier stages of development for drug candidates. “Abivax ticks all the boxes for a strategic acquisition,” he said.
Based on comparable transactions and a peak sales price of 3 billion euros, Abivax could be worth between 12 billion euros and 20 billion euros ($14 billion to $23 billion), Choplin told CNBC.
Includes the latest deals in the IBD space Merck Company Buy Prometheus for 10.8 billion dollars; Roche’s Buy Telavant for 7.1 billion dollars; and Eli Lilly is buying Morphic for 3.2 billion dollars. All of these deals are for earlier-stage assets in development than Abivax’s obefazimod.
Potentially best-in-class treatment
Jefferies analyst Roger Song, who does not cover Abivax but closely follows the IBD space from Boston, said investor optimism stems from the potential multibillion-dollar market for treating IBD, as well as the drug candidate’s new approach to addressing it in multiple ways.
It’s even considered the best treatment for ulcerative colitis, he told CNBC in December.
The results of the obefazimod trial in July surprised investors because many were unaware of it The new mechanism it uses is micro-RNA, Song said.
The final maintenance test is expected in the second quarter of 2026.
Van der Schot said that if Abivax is confident enough about its maintenance results, it could wait to buy it after the trial version is announced, “because they can ask for a higher price.”