The economic cost of Trump attack on the global command


Unlock White House Watch Newsletter for free

On March 3, Donald Trump made two important decisions. One is the Implementing Tariffs In Canada and Mexico at a rate of 25 percent, as well as Chinese imports at a 10 per cent imposed by 10 percent imposed by 10 percent imposed by 10 percent imposed by 10 percent imposed by 10 percent imposed by 10 percent imposed by 10 percent imposed by 10 percent imposed by 10 percent imposed by 10 percent imposed by 10 percent of the last month. art 25 percent tariffs of imports from the EU is expected to follow. Together, these four economies produce 61 percent of our imports. The other and more meaningful decision is to suspend US military assistance in Ukraine, which gives the beleaguered country what is seen in a Hobson choice between surrender and defeat. Trump Vladimir Putin’s friend must be happy: The US president tore west before his happy eyes.

Only two bundles of whirlwind decisions with the second trumpet presidency. But for the outside of the world, they have a lot of importance. They represent the last of the liberal, predictors and rules in charge of trading relationships with the most powerful country in the world and also the one who makes the system itself. They also represent the US leaving the main alliances and commitments in favor of a close relationship with an ersntwhile enemy. Trump trumped Russia more important than Europe.

In both cases, he mistakenly. As Maurice StrikefeldThe former economist of the IMF, noticed, US trade deficiencies are not due to deception of trade partners, is the most lack of American trade is the great fiscal fiscal disability, Now about 6 percent of GDP. The Republican-controlled Senate Plan to make 2017 Trump Permanent Tax cuts It is assumed that this disability will continue at least while the markets gather it. As a result, attempts to close trade deficiencies with tariffs such as trying to flatten a loaded wolf.

To find it will require some knowledge of macroeconomics, which Trump is not very much. But this is not his only fool. Trump also says: “We are faithful, the European Union was formed to screw the United States. That’s the purpose of it. And they made good work.” Moreover, He said about Europe: “They didn’t take our cars, they didn’t take our products on the farm, almost they didn’t and take everything from them.”

The two complaints of foolishness. The EU is formed to bring prosperous economic relations and political co-operation of a continent destroyed by two terrible wars. The long understand and actively promote this reasonable response. But that is, woeful, very different from us from the present mercy person.

The Chart of the US Voters in Russia, by party (%) showing many republics today that Russia is as beautiful

In addition, as the Economist of Dan Jesus, Jiper Rangvid Notes on his blog, Trumper just looked at the bilateral trade of things, ignoring trade with services and earnings from capital and work. This happens that the US earnings from exports of services are at least in the eurozone and capital returns exported to bilateral disabilities. The total balance of bilateral eurozone account current US US balance is nearly zero, that is not even these things. But bilateral balances on things only don’t matter even the total scales of the valuice. Given how he got his money, Trump runs a huge shortfall of things in all his life. It was hard as if made him a lot of harm. (See charts.)

For Mexico and Canada, economic costs of these residences despite this can still be an unreasonable work, actually know economy, economic battlefield. EU should take revenge. Transatlantic relationships can be permanently damaged.

Even the trading war, it is upset at all, Pales by comparing ambush to Volandmyr Zelenskyy in Oval Office Through the US and Vice-President President Friday and the next suspension of military assistance in Ukraine. The goal can force Zelenskyy to sign the mineral deal. But the bigger problem is to trust Zelenskyy Putin, for a good reason, and now there is no basis to trust the Trump. Trump can also want a “peace agreement, but why Putin agrees with a true if Ukraine belongs to?

Bar Chart of Polling Answers: Do you think the US must or should not send weapons and military assistance in Ukraine? Showing that there is a large part of the US partisan if providing a commitment to the Ukrainian military

Both men care about Ukrainians to be a free people. But if that aim is to be, Europe must obtain the burden of two self-reliance defense and underpinning Ukraine. Friedrich Merz, the next chancellor in Germany, was right when he said that his “perfect priority was strengthening Europe, can actually achieve freedom from one.” Those measures should also be taken immediately. One is to accelerate transfer of more € 200bn in the seized Russian reserve in Ukraine. Another one is a big defense fix now that the US commitment to NATO has collapsed.

The EU Plus UK has a joint population 3.6 times Russia and a GDP, in Powering Power, 4.7 times larger. Well, the problem is not a lack of human resources or economic: if (a large if) Europe effectively co-operate it can be military balance in a long time. But the difficulty is in the medium run, ever Europe cannot make some important military equipmentwhere it is and Ukraine depends. Will the US will refuse to provide weapons if Europeans purchased them? Such a refund of supply can be a time of truth.

Trump launched an economic and political war on US allies and dependents. But the resulting collapse of trust in countries used to share its values ​​will be best for the US, too.

Martin.wolf@ft.com

Follow Martin Wolf with myot and to Twitter





Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *