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The problem in the future is that it hasn’t happened yet. The firm’s betting whose amounts mainly living in educated guess is not for the weakest of the stomach. NVIDIA, PALANTIR, APPLOVIN AND MICROSTYGY – the four best technology performs in US 2024 – everyone puts investors in their ways.
NVIDIA, by its larger measure, encourages more cortisol than most. The $ 3tn chipmaker, whose power of silicon artificial intelligence, nearly three of the market capitalization of 2024, but dropped about 6 percent this year. The fourth quarter income of comfortable expectations of analysts, but investors are more focused on the next.
Now, everyone will plan. Boss Jensen Huang says the need for new high-powered Blackwell chips “awesome”. The usefulness is traded with a little of new ranges, but the income for the current three-month period should be higher than ever thought. The problem is that beyond that, the detail is not good. Each quarter is a new nail-biter.
Stock buying a company is always a bet on distant income streams; The part of the lion’s value comes from “terminal value”. For example, take the next five-year value of the estimates of the Nvidia’s cash flow analysts, according to the visible alpha, they are returned to 10 percent of a year 500bn today. That means 80 percent of the $ 3TN value of NVIDIA market consists of money specified after 2030.
Many can happen in short windows of time. Just ask millions of investors who have never heard of Nvidia five years ago. And tech stocks are not usually sensitive to sudden transit. NVIDIA, eg, earns about a third of the income from only three customers, which in turn is sold by others. Its sales in China are subject to Tarff policy that, as the Trump administration demonstrates several times, can turn on a dime.
Other members of this fact of four have a strong time. The Palantery of Software Canhantir has reports that the Pentagon wants to slash budgets, potentially unstoppable by a company with half governments. However, yet, trades are about 50 times ahead of income, which makes 16 times 16 times feel positive stuid. Microstgy, in the meantime, own unique quirks: Mostly a piggy bank full of bitcoin, the price in which – always mercurial – tackled.
The Applovin change is more sudden. The company, space of spaces brokers within gaming gaming, suggested after two short reports of the seller are strong growth than to see. Slowly moving, more informed companies are less contaminated with that attack on future cash flow to investors.
For NVIDIA, some things, at least, for sure. Its largest customers – companies like Microsoft and Amazon – have buckets of money and determined to spend it on chips. Currently, they have little, if there are, other options when part of AI’s prosecutors. And investors, for now, relax. Tension test passed; The other will come soon.