Lahore, Pakistan – More than 1,000 people were cremated on Saturday 30 people killed In a suicide bombing at a mosque in Islamabad, analysts warned that the attack could be part of a wider effort to stoke sectarian tensions in the country.
A suicide attack took place at the Khadija Tul Kubra Mosque in Tarlai Kalan area of southeast Islamabad during Friday prayers.
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In a statement, the Islamabad administration said 169 people were shifted to hospital after rescue teams reached the spot.
A few hours later, the splinter faction of ISIL (ISIS) group in Pakistan claimed responsibility on his Telegram channel, releasing an image that said the assailant was holding a gun, his face was covered and his eyes were obscured.
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said security guards at the mosque tried to stop the suspect, who opened fire before detonating explosives among worshippers. He alleged that the attackers were going to Afghanistan.
Security officials told Al Jazeera on Saturday that several key arrests had been made, including close family members of the suicide bombers in Peshawar and Karachi. He did not clarify whether there was any evidence of his involvement in the conspiracy.
Capital under fire?
Violence in Islamabad had declined over the years, but things have changed in recent months. The bombing was the second major attack in the federal capital after a suicide blast targeting a district court in November last year.
Abdul Saeed, a Sweden-based analyst on the conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan, said ISIL’s Pakistan branch, referred to as ISPP, has claimed responsibility for the deadliest operation in the country since its inception in May 2019.
“Since its inception, ISPP has carried out approximately 100 attacks, more than two-thirds of which took place in Balochistan. These attacks included three suicide bombings targeting Afghan Taliban members, police and security forces in Balochistan,” Syed, founder of the Oxus Watch research forum, told Al Jazeera.
In Pakistan, there has been a steady increase in violence perpetrated by militants in the last three years. Data released by the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies for 2025 reported 699 attacks across the country, a 34 percent increase from the previous year.
The Afghan Taliban, who returned to power in August 2021 after the withdrawal of United States forces, have been accused by Islamabad of harboring armed groups that attack Pakistan from Afghan soil.
The Afghan Taliban condemned Friday’s mosque bombing and have consistently denied harboring anti-Pakistan fighters.
The same issue flared up in October The deadliest border conflict For years between the two sides, which killed dozens of people and displaced both sides.
A United Nations report last year said the Afghan Taliban support the Pakistani Taliban, or TTP, which has carried out several attacks across Pakistan.
The report also states that the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has links with affiliates of the TTP and ISIL in Khorasan Province (ISKP), indicating a convergence of groups with separate but intersecting agendas.
A few days ago, Pakistan’s military concluded a week-long security operation in the restive southwestern Balochistan province, claiming 216 militants were killed in targeted attacks.
A military statement on Thursday said it followed province-wide attacks by separatists BLA done to “destabilize the peace of Balochistan”.
Fahad Nabeel, head of Islamabad-based consultancy Geopolitical Insights, said Pakistan is likely to maintain a tough stance towards Kabul, citing Afghanistan’s failure to act against anti-Pakistani militant groups.
He added that officials would likely share preliminary findings of the investigation and point to a possible Afghan link.
“The upward trend in terrorist attacks seen last year is expected to continue this year as well. Serious efforts are needed to identify networks of facilitators in and around major urban centers, who are helping terrorist groups to carry out terrorist attacks,” Nabeel told Al Jazeera.
Communal fault lines
Manzar Zaidi, a Lahore-based security analyst, cautioned against comparing the latest bombing to the attack on the district court last year.
“While last year’s attack was essentially targeting a state institution, this attack was clearly sectarian in nature, which has certainly happened in recent times, and so I would urge caution against a knee-jerk reaction to conflate the two events,” he told Al Jazeera.
Shias make up more than 20 percent of Pakistan’s population of about 250 million. The country has experienced occasional sectarian violence, particularly in the Kurram district of northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan.
Regional tensions have fueled domestic concerns.
Zaidi said armed groups in the region, backed by Iran, were on alert “amid simmering geopolitical tensions”.
“For Pakistan, there is a need to really keep a close eye on how things develop in the Kurram region, where things can go out of control and have ramifications. There is an uneasy peace in the region right now; it can easily destabilize,” he said.
Kurram, a tribal district bordering Afghanistan, has roughly equal Sunni and Shia populations. It has long been a flashpoint for communal encounters and witnessing A long battle last year.
Nabeel said a timely conclusion of the investigation could shape the government’s response and help prevent the attack from triggering widespread communal unrest.
“However, lower intensity communal targeting is likely in various parts of the country,” he warned.
Saeed added that investigations of Pakistani nationals who joined ISIL and affiliated groups showed that many came from anti-Shia Sunni armed groups.
“Therefore the role of these sectarian elements is an important factor in understanding such attacks. Moreover, such attacks appear to be important in helping to further recruit anti-Shia-Sunni militants in Pakistan, thereby contributing to IS’s efforts to strengthen its network in the country,” he said.