Increased human-caused climate change Recent heavy rains and floods The disaster devastated parts of southern Africa, killing more than 100 people and displacing hundreds of thousands, researchers said Thursday.
A study by World Weather Attribution analyzes recent heavy rainfall severe flooding Research in parts of South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe shows that the region experiences a year’s worth of rainfall in 10 days.
It has caused widespread damage to housing and infrastructure estimated to be worth millions of dollars, and humanitarian agencies say there is an escalating crisis for people displaced and facing hunger, disease outbreaks and lack of health services. because of destruction.
many houses and buildings Mozambique Roads and bridges were washed away in parts of Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces in South Africa and Zimbabwe, and dozens of hospitals and clinics were completely submerged.
The research was conducted by scientists around the world using peer-reviewed methods to assess the impact of climate change on severe weather patterns and events.
A once-in-50-year earthquake
Data from recent downpours, which occur approximately every 50 years, confirmed “a clear trend toward more intense downpours,” the study said.
The situation is also exacerbated by the current La Niña weather phenomenon, which naturally brings wetter conditions to the southern African region, but the atmosphere is now much warmer.
“Our analysis clearly shows that our continued burning of fossil fuels is not only increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall, but also making events that would have occurred anyway more severe,” said Izzidine Pinto, senior climate researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.
Pinto, a co-author of the study, said it was difficult for the climate models used to determine exactly how severe the recent floods would become due to climate change, but that a 40% increase in rainfall intensity was impossible to explain without human-caused climate change.
“This means that an already severe rainfall has turned into an even more severe flood that communities are not equipped to cope with,” he said.
According to the United Nations, Africa accounts for only 3% to 4% of global emissions, but is one of the regions most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. floods and previous crises such as hurricanes Disasters in southern Africa cost most poor countries hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, and the continent has Rich countries urged to provide more help Climate-related disasters.
The World Health Organization says about 1.3 million people in southern Africa have been affected by this month’s flooding.
Rainfall exceeds expectations
Affected areas of southern Africa are no strangers to heavy rains and flooding, but scientists were shocked by the severity of recent events.
“This event surprised us because we experienced a similar event 25 years ago, when floods inundated the same area,” said Bernardino Nhantumbo, a researcher at the Mozambique Meteorological Service. “In some places the amount of rainfall expected for the entire rainy season was reached in two or three days, so it is difficult to adapt to any situation.”
Nhantumbo said nine international rivers flow downstream towards Mozambique and serious damage is expected due to heavy rainfall and stream flow following such events.
“We predict well because we have different models, but these events are not affordable even with good predictions,” he said.
Central and southern Mozambique were hardest hit, with the Gaza provincial capital of Xasay and the nearby town of Chokwe largely inundated.
Researchers seek Africa-centric climate model
Researchers have also called for the development of climate models in Africa to better understand the dynamics and extent of climate change impacts in various regions of the continent.
Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, said the lack of developed climate models in Africa was part of the reason most models struggled to accurately determine the severity of recent floods caused by climate change.
“All the free climate models that we have were developed outside of Africa. They were all developed in some climate modeling centers in the United States, Europe and Asia,” Otto said. “But no single climate model has been developed for Africa. So they’re often designed to get the best weather in the areas they’re designed for, and that’s true of all models.”