beirut – Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun may face the most critical period of his year-long tenure in the coming weeks and months.
In February, Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Chief of Staff Rodolphe Haykel will visit Washington, DC. Also in February, the LAF will present plans for the second phase of Hezbollah’s disarmament. Then in March, an international conference will be held in Paris in support of the Lebanese Army.
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The incidents come amid increasing pressure on the United States and Israel to continue efforts to disarm Lebanon and on former armed forces chief Aoun himself. They also come as Israeli attacks was intense in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, and as Naim Qasim, the leader of Hezbollah States Israel will not accept demilitarization north of the Litani River, which runs through southern Lebanon, until it begins to abide by a ceasefire agreed to in November 2024.
Israel is violating the ceasefire with almost daily bombings and occupying parts of the south.
That leaves Aoun, stuck on rocks and hard ground, facing the daunting task of disarming Hezbollah without plunging Lebanon into renewed civil conflict, something no one in the traumatized nation wants.
With Israel, which has violated the November 2024 ceasefire more than 11,000 times, the LAF is currently understaffed, underfunded and understaffed to deploy in southern Lebanon, relying on it to stop attacks on the country.
That leaves him navigating diplomatic corridors with international actors to support the Lebanese army and pressure Israel to abide by the cease-fire: two crucial steps that would facilitate Hezbollah’s disarmament.
“Joseph Aoun finds himself in a very vulnerable position, with increasing American and Israeli pressure on the one hand and domestic rejection of any discussion of weapons under fire,” Souheb Jawhar, a non-resident fellow at the Beirut-based Badil, Alternative Policy Institute, told Al Jazeera. “What he is doing today is managing a very delicate transitional phase, aimed at preventing a comprehensive collapse rather than imposing a final solution.”
New Deal?
On November 27, 2024, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect. The two sides have exchanged cross-border attacks since October 8, 2023, the day after a Hamas-led operation in southern Israel started the Israel-Palestine war.
In September 2024, Israel escalated unilateral attacks on Lebanon. In October, Israeli forces invaded southern Lebanon and engaged Hezbollah in the war. By the time a cease-fire was agreed, Israel had killed about 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians.
Hezbollah was also severely weakened as a military and political force in Lebanon, suffering murder of its charismatic, long-term leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Under the agreement, both sides were to cease their attacks, Hezbollah would withdraw north of the Litani River, and Israel would withdraw its forces from Lebanon. But since then, Israel has not stopped attacking Lebanon, and it is stationing troops at five locations on Lebanese territory.
Israeli drones are always present in southern Lebanon and occasionally hover over Beirut, despite Hezbollah not firing cross-border fire since December 2024.
Despite the unilateral ceasefire, US President Donald Trump’s administration has continued to push for the disarmament of Hezbollah. The issue is controversial in Lebanon, where the group enjoys widespread support among the Shiite Muslim community but strong opposition in other communities.
A source close to Aoun, who requested anonymity, told Al Jazeera that Lebanon stood by the deal but that no one was holding Israel responsible.
“Only the Americans have an advantage over Israel,” the source said. “The problem we have now is whether Israel really wants to take the diplomatic route and implement the November 27, 2024 agreement or whether they are trying to renegotiate (we don’t know).
Imad Salami, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, noted that “the broader problem is that Lebanon is being asked to deliver security results without mutual guarantees”.
“Unless Israeli military pressure goes unchecked and international mechanisms fail to enforce balance, any Lebanese president will face the same difficulties,” Salami told Al Jazeera.
The fear, of course, is that the US will continue to pressure the LAF to disarm Hezbollah without ruling in Israel. Some in Lebanon worry that the LAF and Hezbollah could come into direct conflict – possibly splitting forces – as happened in the early years of the 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war.
But analysts and other sources predict that the LAF will do everything possible to avoid civil strife.
“The military will avoid anything that degenerates into a civil conflict,” Michael Young, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera. “But if they get better equipment and support because of the support of the Lebanese army, they can be more aggressive in securing the weapons.”
Threat of LAF-Hezbollah conflict?
LAF Commander Haikal is scheduled to visit Washington from February 3 to 5. He was due to visit the United States in November, but the visit was canceled after American officials expressed displeasure at Haykel’s criticism of Israel.
The visit to Haikal is one of several key events in February and March that Lebanon and Aoun hope will swing the pendulum in their favor. Haykal will also propose a second phase of Hezbollah’s disarmament through the LAF to the Lebanese cabinet in February.
In the second phase, Hezbollah is to be disarmed from the Litani River to the Awli River, which flows across Lebanon south of Beirut.
Then, on March 5, Paris will host an international conference aimed at supporting the LAF. There, Lebanon hopes to meet regional and international allies that support the government in its efforts to rein in Israel and Hezbollah, such as the Saudis, French, Qataris and Egyptians.
While Lebanon works with the US, it has tried to rely on its other allies to help the Americans rein in Israel.
“These countries can help put pressure on Israel to stop killing and attacking Lebanon and implement a ceasefire,” said a source close to Aoun.
The key is to convince US officials to pressure its staunch ally Israel to agree to some of Lebanon’s demands, such as a halt to attacks, the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel, and a withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah has called for reconstruction to begin in southern Lebanon, which Israel has blocked. Human Rights Watch said that Israel Systematically Targeted Reconstruction Devices across southern Lebanon.
However, without US support, analysts say they do not see Israel open to negotiations. And besides, analysts fear a stalemate in the current situation.
The Limits of Diplomacy
As for Hezbollah, the group has asserted that it has no plans to make further concessions as long as Israel continues to attack and occupy Lebanon.
Hezbollah supporters have criticized Aoun and the Lebanese government, accusing them of inefficiency in extracting any concessions from the Israelis.
“Diplomatic methods may have prevented the war from escalating, but they did not achieve any of the objectives of confronting the Israeli occupation,” Qassem Kasir, a journalist close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.
In a speech on January 26, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said the group was under severe military and political pressure.
But while Hezbollah has been critical of Aoun, the group has kept a direct line open to him.
“The connection never ended,” said a source close to Aoun. “There have always been talks with a representative of Hezbollah and someone close to the president, (parliament speaker and Hezbollah ally) Nabih Berri has also been involved in these discussions.”
“Hezbollah doesn’t have many options,” Young said. “They are sitting on communities that have been traumatized and whose villages have been destroyed.”
“There are clear limits to mere diplomacy when Israel calculates that the cost of sustained strikes is low,” Salami noted.
Jawar added that Aoun should use “a strong approach” that still focuses on negotiations without impatience, an approach that is “regionally supported rather than left to a distorted balance of power”.
But the embattled Lebanese leader also knows diplomacy is his only shot.
“We have no cards to play,” said a source close to Aoun. “All we have is diplomacy and we’re doing our best.”