As the world’s business elite gather in the Swiss Alps for the annual World Economic Forum, Goldman Sachs Chairman and Chief Executive David Solomon offered a stark interpretation of the current corporate mood: CEOs are ready to unleash record levels of investment if Washington can tamp down the noise of what he calls “shotgun” policies.
talking about Goldman Sachs Exchange podcast On January 20, before heading to Davos, Solomon described a business landscape defined by sharp dichotomies. On the one hand, the macroeconomic landscape in 2026 is “quite favorable for risk assets and markets,” driven by “a very stimulating set of actions” including monetary easing and a massive capital investment boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure. On the other hand, executives are grappling with anxiety caused by inconsistent policymaking and geopolitical “noise.”
“They’re worried about the noise outside of Washington,” he said. “They are concerned, for lack of a better term, that this shotgun approach to policy is not as consistent as they would like it to be. While it is consistent in terms of regulation (de)regulation, it is inconsistent in other ways.” “Frankly,” he added, “I think they want to see less noise and more focus on growth opportunities because that’s what CEOs want.”
return on transaction
Solomon’s most optimistic predictions focus on a recovery in M&A driven by a sweeping shift in the regulatory environment. Solomon noted that over the past four years, when CEOs asked regulators whether a deal was possible, “it didn’t matter what the question was. The answer was no.”
Now, in a deregulated environment that Solomon calls “very stimulating for investment and growth,” business leaders are becoming more forward-thinking. “Unless there’s a big exogenous event that really changes sentiment significantly, 2026 could be one of the best M&A years ever,” Solomon predicts. His optimism extends to the IPO market, with private equity portfolios that rallied during the boom years of 2020 and 2021 finally ready to exit as public markets improve.
Solomon’s comments echo those of Kim Posnett, co-head of investment banking at Goldman Sachs, who predicts a “big cycle” of IPOs in the coming period. Q&A with wealth earlier this week. She also noted how the M&A market is transitioning from a recovery year in 2025 to a “bold and strategic” state, with $5.1 trillion in deal volume last year, a 44% increase from 2024.
“Shotgun” Anxiety
Solomon stressed, however, that the CEO’s optimism was tempered by frustration with how the new administration was handling policy implementation. While CEOs welcome deregulation, they are uneasy about the unpredictability of other government actions. Solomon highlighted concerns about “a shotgun policy that is not as consistent as they would like.” For those unfamiliar with the phrase, the “shotgun method” relates to how a shotgun fires many small, dispersed pellets, increasing the chance of hitting a moving target compared to a single bullet fired from a rifle at a target.
“If there is stability, CEOs become very optimistic and very forward-looking,” Solomon observed. “When there is noise and uncertainty, they are more cautious.” He singled out recent headlines about “Greenland and European tariffs” as the type of geopolitical friction that causes capital to pause. “Things like these create uncertainty. When they create uncertainty, you see drawdowns, rollbacks or pauses.”
The transatlantic gap keeps growing
Solomon also flew to Davos to deliver a sobering message to his European counterparts: The economic divide between the United States and Europe is widening.
“I just think, structurally, Europe is growing at a much lower rate,” he said. He noted that European leaders have repeatedly said they want to advance a more constructive regulatory regime, a more growth-oriented agenda and an agenda that is more pro-capital markets and finance, but “their ability to implement it has been really slow.” Just look at the growth data, he said.
“Europe’s trend growth rate is less than 1%,” Solomon said. He explained that Europe has a population of about 450 million and an economy of about $20 trillion, with a trend growth rate of less than 1%. On the other hand, the United States has a population of approximately 330 million, an economy of US$30 trillion, and a trend growth rate of 2%.
He predicted that “the gap between the United States and Europe will continue to widen,” attributing the gap to America’s superior capital formation processes and technological infrastructure. Days later, President Donald Trump made a similar point — and There are many others, often off-topic— was met with groans and laughter during a speech on the main stage in Davos.
Despite bullish fundamentals, Solomon said he remains wary of risks that can’t be modeled in a spreadsheet. He warned that the main threats to the 2026 trajectory are “exogenous events” stemming from geopolitics, cyber threats or special shocks.
“I think the biggest risk to hampering the economy’s trajectory is some kind of exogenous event,” Solomon concluded. “They come from big, special events that we don’t see in advance.”