U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on January 22, 2026, aboard Air Force One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, from Shannon, Ireland.
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President of the USA Donald TrumpA warning that a US “armada” is heading towards Iran has deepened concerns about possible military action in the Middle East, sending oil prices higher amid fears of supply disruptions.
“We are watching Iran,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Thursday. “You know we have a lot of ships in that direction. We have a big flotilla in that direction and we’ll see what happens.”
The US president also reiterated his call for Tehran not to restart its nuclear program. Repeats comments made to CNBC at the World Economic Forum earlier in the week.
Oil prices, which fell about 2% in the previous session, rose higher on Friday morning.
International standard Brent Oil futures for March delivery were up 1.1% at $64.77 a barrel at 10:13 a.m. London time (5:13 a.m. ET). USA West Texas Intermediate Futures for March delivery were last up 1.2% at $60.06.
Trump’s announcement matched the death toll from Iran’s crackdown nationwide protests accordingly, reached at least 5002 Information agency of human rights defendersAbout 27 thousand people were arrested. HRANA, a US-based non-profit organization, relies on a network of activists in Iran for its reporting.
The protests, which began on December 28 in Tehran’s bazaar, were fueled by growing discontent over the protracted economic crisis, particularly the government’s sharp devaluation of the national currency and price hikes.
A woman with her face painted in the colors of the Iranian flag during a protest in front of the Spanish parliament.
Marcos Del Mazo | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Trump seemed to be repelled by threats Last week, speaking of military action against Iran, he told reporters that “very important sources” in Tehran had told him that “the killing has stopped.”
The US president’s latest warning to Iran has sent energy markets into a tailspin, along with US naval forces in the Persian Gulf region. Iran, a member of OPEC, is a major player in the world oil market, producing more than 3 million barrels of oil per day.
Iran’s “only saving factor”
Aditya Saraswat, director of MENA research at Rystad Energy, said in a research note that there are three possible scenarios for Iran’s oil flow: maintaining the status quo, making progress in negotiations with the Trump administration or preparing for regime change triggered by US intervention.
“Iran’s familiar tactics, such as cover Strait of HormuzBanking on trade with China and the threat of nuclear escalation are still on the table, but their potential to backfire on the regime needs to be weighed,” Saraswat said on Monday.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.
Iranian Navy personnel on board an armed speedboat in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, about 1,320 km (820 miles) south of Tehran, April 30, 2019.
Morteza Nicobasel | Nurphoto Getty Images
Blocking the waterway, even temporarily, could raise global energy prices, raise transportation costs and cause significant supply delays.
Saraswat said the “only compensating factor” for Iran is China’s role as a key driver of export earnings.
“Currently, China accounts for 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, and even part of the cargo ordered for “unknown” destinations ends up in China. Although the current export model seems to be implemented in the near future, its stability is conditional,” he added.
A “well supplied” market
This was reported to CNBC by energy experts Last week, market participants braced for further price swings amid heightened geopolitical tensions, saying a US military strike was unlikely to have a significant impact on Iran’s oil production.
Fitch Ratings analysts: “Significant interruptions in Iranian oil production will boost prices, but the impact will still be limited given the oversupply in the global market” said January 16.
In an interview with CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Wednesday, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser also said the energy sector is “very resilient in terms of managing any volatility.”
Asked about the risk of Iranian oil supply disruptions, Nasser said the market was “well-supplied.”
“If you look at the last decade and how many breaks we’ve had, the market has been well supplied because the sources have also been distributed,” he added.