Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight on the Premier League weekend.
West Ham v Sunderland, Saturday 12.30pm
Enzo Le Fe has quietly slipped under the radar of wider football circles, but not the eyes of Sunderland fans.
Le Fee’s season turned around the moment he was moved into a more central role. Freed from the touchline and given permission to work between the lines, his influence soared. He dictates the pace, demands the ball and, most importantly for this bet, shoots more. The numbers confirm it.
Le Fee has scored in his last two matches and has had four shots on goal during that streak.
At 5/4 with Sky Bet hitting one or more shots on target, the market has yet to catch up with his change of position or his growing assertiveness in the final third.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Burnley v Tottenham, Saturday at 3pm
A 1-1 draw with Liverpool doesn’t mask the bigger picture for Burnley, which is devastating. In all key fundamentals, Burnley are at the bottom of the Premier League. Expected goals for, expected goals against, shots conceded, allowed entries in the box – that’s pure concern.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Liverpool’s Premier League draw with Burnley.
Spurs’ ceiling is miles higher than Burnley’s. When they click, they can overwhelm teams. Tuesday’s win over Borussia Dortmund was a reminder of what this side can look like when there is intensity and quality. Aggressive pressing, fast movement of the ball and a very solid structure in defense.
Playing away hasn’t been a negative for Spurs this season – quite the opposite. They have already gone to Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Leeds and Everton and returned with victories. The idea that Turf Moor is an impenetrable fortress does not fit this Spurs profile.
The evens for an away win look generous.
SCORE OVERVIEW: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BETS: Tottenham to win (even with Sky bet)
Fulham v Brighton, Saturday 3pm
We can get very caught up in just picking sides in the prediction game. Home win or away win. But sometimes the smartest bet is the one nobody wants to back – and Fulham v Brighton has a draw written all over it.
Only one point separates these two in the Premier League. Both teams are capable of beating good sides on their day, but neither consistently dominates teams of a similar level. When Fulham and Brighton face opponents in this group, games tend to settle into long periods of poise.
Rummy is the highest priced of the three outcomes and it is a bet that no one wants to withdraw. Punters gravitate towards winners. Bookmakers know this. So draw prices often deviate organically from where the true probability is, especially in evenly matched matchups like this one. Can be backed here at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester City v Wolves, Saturday 15:00
This is a game that automatically draws the goal line. Manchester City at home, Wolves in town. The market is instinctively leaning towards an afternoon full of goals. But backing this Wolves defense under Rob Edwards has quietly become a profitable strategy. They are tougher, better organized and far more disciplined without the ball. Over the last eight games in the Premier League, Wolves are second in expected goals. It is an elite defense process.
Then factor in Manchester City’s week. Chaotic is the word. Distractions, noise, pressure often lead to pragmatism rather than expression. City don’t need to win big here. Any victory will be enough. Control, manage, move on.
Still, at 1/5 with Sky Bet they’re favorites worth swerving away from. Of those two market options to win, I’d much rather back Wolves to win at 10/1.
That opens up more avenues for betting under goals and the under 3.5 line at 4/5 with Sky Bet stands out as the main play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST: Under 3.5 goals (4/5 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth v Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Florian Wirz’s start to life in the Premier League has been slow – but the signs are starting to show that we need to start paying attention to him across the prop market.
The first few weeks following his £116m summer move from Leverkusen have been tricky. New league, new pace, new expectations. All that jazz.
Wirtz’s end product recently caught fire. He is now averaging close to a goal every 102 minutes in his last eight appearances in all competitions.
After failing to score in his first 22 appearances for Liverpool, he has now found the net in four of his last seven. It is a player who finds rhythm, timing and confidence in his environment.
He is 8/1 to open the scoring with Sky Bet.
PREDICTION OF RESULTS: 1-2
Brentford v Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Some bets don’t need to be overly complicated. You look at the place, you look at the numbers and the picture becomes clear. Brentford at home is one of those situations and Sky Bet’s 10/11 against Nottingham Forest is very hard to turn down.
Gtech has quietly become one of the toughest places in the Premier League. Brentford took 24 points from a possible 33 at home, the fourth best home record in the division. It’s not built on soft elements either, but a repeatable edge driven by the structure, intensity and energy of the crowd.
Brentford is aggressive in duels, strong in second balls and ruthless in important moments. They turn games into unpleasant experiences for visiting teams.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Crystal Palace v Chelsea, Sunday 14:00, live on Sky Sports
The impending departure of Oliver Glasner at the end of the season is important. Even the most professional teams feel it when leadership expires. Messages lose some of their bite. That doesn’t mean Palace will destroy tools, but it does mean the focus can blur on the margins and it’s at this level of fine margins that Premier League games are decided.
Chelsea, fresh from their own off-field search, arrive with something Palace currently lack: clarity. There is no way out in sight. There are no major disturbances. Just points to chase and a clear target under Liam Rosenior to finish in the Champions League. In matches like this, that mental clarity is an underrated asset and makes Chelsea an interesting betting proposition on Evens with Sky Bet.
PREDICTION OF RESULTS: 1-2
Sunday, January 25 at 12:30 p.m
Start at 14:00
Newcastle v Aston Villa, Sunday 14:00, live on Sky Sports
Jolinton and emotional control have always lived on opposite sides of the street. He plays on the edge because that’s what Newcastle need. Intensity, duels, aggression – that’s his job description. And against Aston Villa, that edge found itself in the territory of yellow cards on several occasions.
Jolinton has been booked in five of the last seven matches between Newcastle and Villa. It’s not a coincidence. Villa bring the type of technical ball-carriers and intelligent movers who force Joelinton into recovery challenges, late tackles and tactical mistakes.
Morgan Rogers, Yuri Tielemans and Ollie Watkins are ticket magnets. Since the start of last season, that trio has collectively drawn 48 cards from opposing players. They are smart with their movements, sharp on turns and excellent at calling contact in dangerous areas.
9/4 with Sky Bet for Joelinton to be withdrawn is a serious runner.
SCORE OVERVIEW: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Jolinton to get booked (9/4 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal v Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Bukayo Saka’s current 12-match clean sheet in all competitions is his joint longest drought for Arsenal. On the surface, that kind of run would deter people from picking him up in the shooting market. But I see it differently. Trends in football are always breaking. And timing is everything when it comes to using them for profit.
Saka remains Arsenal’s creative heart, the outlet for danger and the player most likely to take advantage of half-chances in the final third. Arsenal are likely to control much of this game and Saka will be central to creating or finishing chances.
From a betting point of view, the question is not if Saka will eventually score, but when. Looks like it’s time to jump at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Everton v Leeds, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Dominic Calvert-Lewin facing Everton for the first time in his career is a classic “ex-factor” scenario. A player with motivation, familiarity and unfinished business – all variables that cannot be factored into his goalscoring prices. Add in his current form and this becomes a very juicy corner for the players. Calvert-Levin was in an electric mood. Eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances underlines his sharpness and consistency in finishing.
He leads the line for a Leeds side who have scored 17 goals in their last nine Premier League games – second only to Manchester City (18), who paint the picture of a confident squad. You can get 2/1 for Calvert-Levin finding the net.