Vehicles destined for delivery line up in front of the Dream Angel vehicle carrier at the Port of Nagoya on Tuesday, June 18, 2024 in Nagoya, Japan.
Fred Meri | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Japan’s export growth in the final month of 2025 missed analysts’ estimates, rising 5.1% from a year earlier, as shipments to the US fell by double digits.
Analysts polled by Reuters expected export growth to remain unchanged at 6.1% from November.
Growth in Japanese exports fell mainly in the first month of 2025, weighed down by tariff concerns, but picked up later in the year after tariffs were cut to 15% following the announcement of a trade deal with the US.
In December, exports to the US increased by 8.8% and decreased by 11.1% in the previous month. The increase in November was the first increase in exports to the US since March.
Shipments to mainland China, Japan’s largest trading partner, rose 5.6%, while exports to Hong Kong rose 31.1% year-on-year.
Imports rose 5.1% year-on-year in December, a sharp jump from November’s 1.3% increase and beating the Reuters forecast of a 3.6% increase.
The trade data comes as Japan prepares for a snap election called by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on February 8, with its lower house dissolved on Friday.
Analysts say Takaichi’s victory will allow him to push his fiscal agenda through Japan’s parliament with little opposition. This could also include keeping the yen weak as it supports Japan’s export-oriented economy.
Since the announcement of the election, Japanese markets have been in a so-called “Takaichi trade” with stocks largely rising while the yen remained weak.
“(The win) raises the potential for expansionary fiscal policy after the approval of a record budget draft for the fiscal year starting in April,” Sam Jochim, an economist at Swiss private bank EFG, said on Monday.
A strong victory for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could lead to a rally in Japanese stocks, but could trigger a sell-off in Japanese government bonds and the Japanese yen, he added.
The yen, which was around 151 to the dollar when Takaichi took office on October 21, has fallen sharply since then and now stands at 158.