once most populous country in the worldCurrently, China is one of many Asian countries struggling with low fertility rates. trying to The country’s birth rate is 1.0 children per womanBeijing is pursuing a new tool: taxes on condoms, birth control pills and other contraceptives.
As of January 1, such items have 13% VAT is payable. Meanwhile, services such as childcare and matchmaking remain tax-free.
The move comes after China last year Allocate 90 billion yuan ($12.7 billion) for a national child care program that provides families with one-time payments of about 3,600 yuan (more than $500) for each child 3 years old or younger.
I have Studying China’s demographics for nearly 40 years And be aware that the country’s communist government has tried in the past to reverse declining fertility rates through policies that encourage couples to have more children, but that hasn’t worked. I don’t expect these new initiatives to have much, if any, impact in reversing the decline in fertility rates, which are among the lowest in the world and well below the fertility rate. 2.1》Substitution rate“A stable population needs to be maintained.
In many ways, the 13% tax on contraceptives is symbolic. A pack of condoms costs about 50 yuan (about $7), and the average price of a month’s supply of birth control pills is about 130 yuan (about $19). The new taxes are not a major expense at all, adding only a few dollars a month.
Compared with the average cost of raising a child in China – Estimated to be around 538,000 yuan (Over $77,000) By age 18, costs are much higher in urban areas. a 36 year old father tell the bbc He’s not worried about rising prices. “A box of condoms may cost an extra 5 yuan, or 10 yuan, or at most 20 yuan. It only costs a few hundred yuan a year, which is completely affordable,” he said.
The Failure of the Birthivists
China is one of many countries that has adopted policies to encourage fertility to address the problem of low fertility. But they rarely work.
The Singaporean government has been concerned about the country’s extremely low birth rate for decades. it tries Find a way Boost this with programs such as paid maternity leave, childcare subsidies, tax breaks and one-time cash gifts. However, Singapore’s fertility rate, currently at 1.2, remains one of the lowest in the world.
The government there even started Restrictions on building small one-bedroom apartments To encourage more ‘family friendly’ homes with two or more bedrooms – anyone with children will realize that more space is needed, right? But even so, it has not changed the situation of low fertility rates.
In 2012, the Singaporean government enlisted the help of candy maker Mentos. in a viral ad campaignthe brand called on citizens to celebrate “National Day NightTheir marriage flourished somewhat as they “let their patriotism explode” – with a corresponding surge in birth rates nine months later. Even with private sector assistance, it appears, reversing the decline in fertility will be a tricky business.
Korea has this Lowest fertility rate in the world – 0.7 – Financial incentives have been offered to couples to have more children for at least 20 years.
It increases the monthly allowance for married couples becoming parents. In fact, since 2006, the Korean government Spending more than $200 billion Plan to increase South Korea’s birth rate.
However, South Korea’s fertility rate continues to decline, from 1.1 in 2006 to 1.0 in 2017, to 0.9 in 2019, and to 0.7 in 2024.
unfavorable headwinds
China’s predicament is partly of its own making. For decades, the country one child policy Promote a decline in fertility rates. It worked, rising from over 7.0 in the early 1960s to 1.5 in 2015.
At this point the government stepped in again, abandoning the one-child policy and allowing all couples to have two children. In May 2021, the universal two-child policy was abandoned Support the three-child policy.
It was hoped that these changes would lead to a baby boom that would lead to a significant increase in fertility rates across the country. However, the fertility rate continues to decline – to 1.2 in 2021 and 1.0 in 2024.
While China’s historic programs to lower fertility rates were successful, they were aided by broader social changes: the policies came into effect at the same time as China modernized and moved toward an industrialized and urbanized society.
China’s policies aimed at boosting its birth rate are now running into adverse social resistance. Modernization has brought better educational and job opportunities for women—a factor that has kept many people from postponing childbearing.
In fact, much of China’s fertility decline, especially since the 1990s, has been voluntary—more the result of modernization than birth control policies. Chinese couples are having fewer children Due to higher cost of living and education Involves having more than one child.
Additionally, China is one of the most expensive countries in the world to raise a child compared to average income. Tuition fees at all levels of school are higher than in many other countries.
The “low fertility” trap
Another factor to consider is what demographers call the “fertility trap.” This assumption, proposed by demographers in the 2000sIt is believed that once a country’s fertility rate drops below 1.5 or 1.4 (much higher than China’s current level), it will be difficult to increase it by 0.3 or more.
It has been argued that the decline in fertility to such low levels is largely a result of changes in living standards and increased opportunities for women.
Therefore, the likelihood that China’s three-child policy will have any impact on increasing fertility rates is slim. My years of research on China’s demographic trends lead me to believe that raising the price of contraceptives even slightly would have little effect.
Dudley Poston Jr.professor of sociology, Texas A&M University
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