Just because venture capitalists are pouring money into AI hot companies doesn’t mean the industry has made a comeback.
That’s what the latest 2025 venture capital data released by PitchBook and the National Venture Capital Association shows – an uneven market consolidating around a few recognized winners in the most talked-about field of artificial intelligence.
The value of U.S. venture capital deals soared to $339.4 billion in 2025, not far from the 2021 high of $358.2 billion. However: 50% of the deal value in 2025 is invested in 0.05% of the completed deal. Of course, the deals are what you’d expect, from OpenAI’s $40 billion to Databricks’ $4 billion Series L, which valued the company at $134 billion. (This number is minuscule compared to OpenAI on paper, which was last valued at $500 billion and has been reported to be as high as $830 billion.)
“If you look beyond AI, trading is not reaching new highs,” Kyle Stanley, director of U.S. risk research at PitchBook, said via email. “The majority of first-time funding is also for AI companies. So VC has made massive changes in who they’re funding.
Stanford notes that while deal values are near 2021 peaks, exit values are only 34% of the 2021 peak.
“So fundraising is down,” Stanford added. “When you look at new commitments that only amounted to $66.1 billion in financing, you start to understand how much limited partners were hurt by the lack of exits.”
In short, something has to give.
Right-sizing matters – not all private markets are so imbalanced. Consider PitchBook’s 2025 Private Equity Breakdown: While private equity firms also struggled to raise capital, private equity deal value finally surpassed $1 trillion in 2025 for just the second time in history ($1.2 trillion in 2025, down slightly from a high of $1.3 trillion in 2021). This $1.2 trillion is decisively spread across more than 9,000 transactions.
What is the natural evolution of markets when large amounts of capital consolidate around a handful of companies and companies? Andreessen Horowitz just raised $15 billion. PitchBook’s Stanford and I have spoken several times over the past two years about the challenges new venture capital firms face in raising capital, and a16z’s funding itself was a decisive sign.
“Limited partners are looking at established companies,” Stanford said via email. “To see a company like a16z, no matter how well-known a brand it has become, raise $15 billion in a down market is surprising and shows where the priorities are.”
Goodbye… As you head into the long weekend, here’s some interesting news about Good Day’s $7 million seed round, co-founded by Kyle Hency, who founded irreverent shorts brand Chubbies with a college friend. He sold that company in 2021 and is now back. Read more here.
We’re going to Martin Luther King, and I hope you are too. See you on Tuesday,
Ellie Garfunkel
X： @agarfinks
e-mail: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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venture capital
– higgsfieldis a San Francisco-based AI-generated video platform that raised $80 million in Series A funding accelerator, AI capital Partnersand Menlo venture capital.
– midnightThe London, UK-based sports betting and casino operator has raised $35 million in Series C funding. this Rennes group Led the round and was joined by existing investors Play venture capital, unique vision capitaland others.
– Government Dasha New York City-based artificial intelligence platform designed to help companies win and manage government contracts, raised $30 million in Series B funding. Mook capital and brain computer interface Lead this round and join North District and yes Combiner.
– Otto Sports Artificial Intelligencean AI-powered youth sports management and analytics platform based in Minneapolis, Minnesota, raised $16.5 million in seed funding. Mamba grow fair and rally investment corp. Lead this round.
– music AIOttawa, Canada-based music-generated AI attribution and rights management platform has raised $4.5 million in funding. Heavy Lead this round and join business development center and put up venture capital.
– alfalumis a Lausanne, Switzerland-based augmented reality and optical sensor company that has raised CHF 3.4 million (USD 4.2 million) in seed funding. V squared venture capital Lead this round.
– Pattern checkis a live design platform based in Prague, Czech Republic, and San Francisco that raised $3.4 million in seed funding. Patek Lead this round and join creed venture capital, angel investmentand others.
private equity
– Accelerate KKR Obtain a majority stake Nutritional tabletsis a Denver, Colorado-based digital restaurant platform designed to combine digital menus, signage, food labeling and ordering in one platform. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Adian Agree to acquire minority stake IVB Health Laboratoryis a dietary supplement company headquartered in Valencia, Spain. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Newberg Berman Acquired a minority stake Ryana tax firm located in Plano, Texas. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– platinum stocks Obtain a majority stake Tongrun internationalis a sheet metal solutions company located in Bonham, Texas. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– synergya portfolio company eureka fair Partnersobtained alps groupis a staircase designer, manufacturer and installer based in Andover, UK. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– this pony group,Depend on Capstreetobtained Faucetis a plumbing services company located in Wixom, Michigan. Financial terms were not disclosed.
quit
– Then stand angle Agree to acquire Mori QCIA companyis a Tokyo, Japan-based manufacturer of products designed to improve the safety of buildings and infrastructure, Lonely Star Approximately US$519 million.
Others
– Yunyao obtained human nationalan artificial intelligence data marketplace based in London, UK. Financial terms were not disclosed.
people
– aroundan asset management company headquartered in Milan, Italy, promoted massimiliano slate, Damian Martyand milena Torciano to private equity partners.
– Bowring Capitalis a venture capital firm headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida. Eric Tas Partners.
– Renovated capital Partnersis a private equity firm headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania, shoot heath To the principal, John Matthews Vice President, and Adam swak to the Vice President.