Drug overdose deaths in the U.S. have been declining for much of last year, signaling lasting improvement in an epidemic that has been worsening for decades.
federal data Data released Wednesday showed drug overdose deaths have been falling for more than two years – Biggest drop in decades — but the decline is slowing.
Brandon Marshall, a researcher at Brown University who studies overdose trends, said monthly deaths are still not back to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, let alone levels before the current overdose epidemic erupted decades ago.
“Overall, I think it’s still encouraging, especially since we’re seeing almost a nationwide decline,” he said.
Overdose deaths drop in 45 states
Deaths from opioid painkiller overdoses began rising steadily in the 1990s, followed by waves of deaths from heroin and, more recently, illicit fentanyl. Deaths peaked at nearly 110,000 in 2022, dropped slightly in 2023, and then plummeted 27% in 2024 to about 80,000. It was the largest one-year decline on record.
The new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is through August 2025 and is the first update of monthly interim drug overdose death tolls since 2025. federal government shutdown.
An estimated 73,000 people will die from overdoses in the 12 months to August 2025, down about 21% from 92,000 in the previous 12-month period.
CDC officials reported a decrease in deaths in all states except Arizona, Hawaii, Kansas, New Mexico and North Dakota. But they noted it’s likely not every state reports all overdose deaths, and more data in the future could affect the state’s statistics.
Researchers cannot yet confidently say why the death toll has dropped. Experts offer a variety of possible explanations: Overdose reversal drug naloxoneexpand addiction treattransformed into how people use Drugs, and the Growing Impact of Billions of Dollars Opioid lawsuit settlement.
Some also pointed out Research This suggests that the number of possible drug overdoses has been declining, as fewer teenagers are taking drugs and many illegal drug users have died.
Two other theories have recently joined the list.
China regulatory changes could have impact
exist piece of paper University of Maryland researchers published an article last week in the journal Science pointing to drug supply issues. They say regulatory changes in China several years ago appear to have reduced the supply of precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl.
Their argument is based in part on information from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, which reported last year that fentanyl’s purity and dangerous potency increased early in the COVID-19 pandemic but declined after 2022. This suggests that making fentanyl becomes more difficult and its potency is diluted.
One piece of evidence: more U.S. Reddit users reporting a fentanyl “drought” in 2023.
The authors linked this to signs that the Chinese government, at the urging of U.S. officials, would take steps in 2023 to crack down on the sale of substances used to make drugs. There is limited information on what exactly the Chinese government did, making the paper somewhat speculative, but “we think we can prove it,” said co-author Peter Reuter.
Reuters and his colleagues believe the recent decline in drug overdose deaths may be because manufacturers in Canada and Mexico have found alternative sources.
Their paper was inspired by a team of University of Pittsburgh researchers who earlier concluded that regulatory changes in China for the drug carfentanil were a significant reason for a decline in overdose deaths in the United States in 2018.
Have pandemic stimulus payments made a difference?
The Pittsburgh researchers—Dr. Donald Burke and Dr. Hal Jalal—are now focusing on another theory about the cause of overdose deaths. exist piece of paper Published last week in the International Journal of Drug Policy, they said overdose trends may be at least partly related to federal stimulus checks being sent out during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Researchers tracked three rounds of pandemic stimulus funding delivered to U.S. households in 2020 and 2021 and found a spike in drug overdose deaths after each round.
Researchers in Pittsburgh said the money eased financial hardship for many families, but some also helped people pay for illegal drugs. The end of these payments helps explain why overdoses occur Stable in 2022 Then the decline began, they said.
Dr. Daniel Ciccarone, a drug policy expert at the University of California, San Francisco, said both arguments appear to be valid, although they cannot prove causation.
“I personally think it’s more complicated,” and those partial explanations are layered on top of other trends, he said.
Researchers in Maryland and Pittsburgh have raised questions about whether Trump administration policies will slow momentum.
They pointed out that Trump’s sharp increase in tariffs on Chinese imports last year caused tensions between China and the United States, and speculated that China may relax its supervision of fentanyl precursors.
They also pointed out that Trump Promise to write a check for $2,000 Provides help to Americans to offset price increases caused by tariffs on China. Burke said the checks could lead to some drug users squandering and overdoses, and he urged federal officials to think carefully about how to allocate the money.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration this week About 2,000 grants canceled The move is expected to jeopardize plans to provide mental health as well as drug treatment and prevention services.
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