Paul AdamsDiplomatic correspondent
Among the many questions swirling since last week’s dramatic events in Caracas – and there are many – one that refuses to go away centers around the bespectacled woman who now leads what US officials call Venezuela’s “interim authority”.
Why Delcy?
What is it about Delcy Rodríguez, daughter of a former Marxist guerrilla and representative of ousted dictator Nicolas Maduro, that has caught the eye of the Trump administration?
And why did Washington decide on a declared “Chavista” revolutionary to stay in power, instead of supporting the leader of the opposition, María Corina Machado, whose opposition movement is widely believed to have won the 2024 presidential election?
The answer, according to a former US ambassador to Venezuela, is simple.
“They went for the stability of democracy,” said Charles Shapiro, who served as George W Bush’s ambassador to Caracas from 2002-04.
“They keep the dictatorial regime without the dictator. The henchmen are still there.”
“I think it’s dangerous as hell.”
But the alternative, which involves wholesale regime change and support for Machado’s opposition movement, may involve other risks, including potential infighting among opposition figures and the alienation of Venezuelans – perhaps up to 30% – who voted for Maduro.
In his dramatic press conference on Saturday morning, President Trump surprised many observers by dismissing Nobel Peace Prize winner Machado as “disrespectful” within Venezuela, while describing Rodríguez as “gracious.”
“I was very shocked to hear the disqualification of María Corina Machado by President Trump,” said Kevin Whitaker, former deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Caracas.
“His movement is very much elected…and so disqualifying Machado, in effect, disqualifies the entire movement.”
The speed, and apparent ease, with which Maduro was removed and Rodríguez installed led some observers to speculate that the former vice president may have been in on the plan.
“I think it’s very telling that we went after Maduro and the vice president survived,” said former CIA officer Lindsay Moran.
“It’s obvious that there were high-placed sources. My immediate speculation was that those high-placed sources were in the VP’s office, if not the VP himself.”
But Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group who lives in Caracas, says that the conspiracy theory will not stand up to scrutiny, because great power still rests with Venezuela’s defense minister, General Vladimir Padrino Lopez, and hardline interior minister, Diosdado Cabello, both loyal allies of Maduro.
“Why would he sell out to Maduro, leaving him defenseless, internally, against the men who control the guns,” Gunson said.
However, the decision to back Rodríguez followed warnings that installing Machado could result in dangerous levels of instability.
Last October, an ICG report warned that “Washington should be wary of regime change.”
“The risks of violence in any post-Maduro scenario should not be underestimated,” the report urged, noting that elements of the security forces could launch a guerrilla war against the new authorities.
“We warned people in the administration, it’s not going to work,” Gunson said. “There’s a violent riot, it’s your fault and you’ll own it.”
On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported the existence of a classified US intelligence assessment that reached similar conclusions and determined that members of the Maduro regime, including Rodríguez, are in a better position to lead an interim government.
The White House has not commented publicly on the report, but has made clear that it plans to work with Rodríguez for the foreseeable future.
“It belies a bit of hard realism on the part of the Trump administration, said Henry Ziemer, an associate fellow in the Americas Program at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies.
But the challenges, he says, are just beginning.
“Capturing Maduro is the easy part. The broader reconstruction of Venezuela, the oil, drugs and democracy goals…will take more time to accomplish.
For now, though, Rodríguez seems like someone the Trump administration feels it can work with.
“He’s a bit of an economic reformer,” Gunson said. “He knows the need for an opening of the economy and he does not reject the idea of bringing back foreign capital.”
Ziemer agreed that Rodríguez may not have difficulty doing Washington’s bidding when it comes to rolling out the welcome mat for US oil companies, offering greater cooperation in counter-narcotics and even lowering Venezuela’s relations with Cuba, China and Russia, especially if it means the gradual lifting of US sanctions.
“I think he can do that,” he said.
“But if the U.S. is asking for real progress toward a democratic transition, that will be much more difficult.”
For now, it doesn’t appear high on Washington’s list of priorities.
In press statements on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke about a three-stage plan for Venezuela, starting with the stabilization of the country and the sale of 30-50 million barrels of oil under US supervision.
The plan will lead to what Rubio called “a process of reconciliation”, including amnesties for opposition forces, the release of political prisoners and the rebuilding of civil society.
“The third phase, of course, will be one of transition,” he said, without elaborating.
Article 233 of the Venezuelan constitution calls for new elections within 30 days of a president who becomes “permanently unable to serve,” something that seems to apply in a situation where Maduro is suffering in a New York prison, awaiting trial.
But in an interview with NBC News on Monday, President Trump said elections are not on the horizon. “We have to fix the country first,” he said. “You can’t be an election.”
Gunson said that Washington’s decision not to go for regime change in the short term may make sense, but the absence of a medium- or long-term hope is disappointing.
“Trump may get something out of this, but the Venezuelans don’t,” he said. “Ordinary Venezuelans are spoiled as usual.”
With the Trump administration discussing the prospects of international oil companies reinvesting in Venezuela’s corrupt and moribund petroleum infrastructure, Gunson says the reality may be more complicated.
“No one is going to come in here with the tens of billions of dollars needed … to start the recovery process if the government is illegitimate and there is no rule of law,” he said.
When former Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez named Nicolás Maduro as his successor, shortly before his death in 2013, the move was described as Chavez’s “dedazo,” a Spanish slang term meaning “finger,” a personal anointing that overrides the normal democratic process.
Ambassador Shapiro sees parallels in Delcy Rodríguez’s rise to power.
“This is Trump’s dedazo,” he said.