In 2025, some big names like Circle went public and became hugely successful. On the M&A front, blockbuster deals such as Google’s $32 billion acquisition of Wiz made headlines.
But the expected wave of exits has not pleased everyone. The response to some IPOs, such as Navan, has been more lukewarm. Although overall IPO activity has rebounded from recent lows, it remains below historical levels.
As we head into 2026, the fundamentals affecting private market exits are much the same: Private companies are larger than ever by valuation, but they also have more liquidity leverage than ever to pull without tapping public markets. But this privilege is reserved for the best.
Further down the private company food chain, the situation is more complicated. Even for some promising AI startups, acquiring a giant is more attractive than going it alone. This means acquisitions and other creative deal variations are also very important.
Here’s what Term Sheet readers are saying about the exit landscape in 2026, along with their predictions for IPOs and M&A.
NOTE: Answers have been edited for clarity and brevity.
initial public offering
IPO momentum will continue until early 2026 and then slow down. Public stocks are exceptionally strong right now, with investors receptive to technology, liquidity strong, and trading volume strong. There is a four-year backlog of technology companies preparing to go public, and this pent-up demand will continue to be unleashed in the first or second quarter of 2026. But this window won’t stay open indefinitely. ——Isabelle Freidheim, founder and managing partner of Athena Capital
The IPO market will continue to build on the success of 2025. Our recent buy-side discussions make it clear that the institutional market will be selective but want to commit more capital to back their best ideas and grow with their winners. —Seth Rubin, global head of equity capital markets at Stifel
Although the US/UK IPO market shows early signs of recovery, optimism will remain cautious. The opening of the IPO market will be a very important event. The backlog is huge and a positive trigger is needed to move the company forward to go public. —Ivan Nikkhoo, Managing Partner, Navigate Ventures
As valuations improve, the IPO market will see more high-end, established companies come to market, while smaller issuers will continue to struggle until meaningful reforms make the process more efficient and cost-effective. —Brad Bernstein, managing partner, FTV Capital
We expect 2026 to bring strong crypto asset trading, including M&A activity in prediction markets and IPOs, as well as public tokenization transactions (if we get some useful relief from the SEC). —Ben Cohen, partner at Latham & Watkins
Because IPO windows are more volatile, late-stage companies (in life sciences) will remain private longer and often run dual-track M&A/IPO processes. Continued high levels of activity are expected across both early- and late-stage assets in the biotechnology and oncology sectors. —Mike Patrone, technology, life sciences and private equity partner at Goodwin
mergers and acquisitions
Artificial intelligence software acquisitions worth more than $50 billion have reshaped the market. As the friendly regulatory environment continues and incumbents increase their ability to raise capital—especially if they pull back on very large spending and free up tens of billions of dollars—I predict we will see upwards of $50 billion in AI software acquisitions. ——Jai Das, co-founder, president and partner of Sapphire Ventures
The deal environment will be more active, but larger acquisitions are likely to be intermittent and highly competitive.—Luke Sarsfield, CEO, P10
In 2026, financial technology will enter the integration stage. Those companies that can achieve true product-market fit, strong unit economics, and defensible data advantages will achieve decisive leadership, either by acquiring smaller players. —Ben Borodach, Co-Founder and CEO, April
I think we will see a lot of investment in AI to help with loss-related activities (FNOLs, fraud detection, etc.). We will also continue to see private equity target insurance distribution as an industry, while insurance companies continue to snap up creative new underwriters. —David Seider, chief commercial officer, TheZebra.com
2026 will be the year biotech becomes popular again. Big Pharma, with more than $1 trillion in cash, will make massive acquisitions of venture-backed biotech companies focused on first-in-class therapies in oncology and metabolic diseases. — Steven Young, global head of venture capital at Schroders
Despite headlines about trade wars and deglobalization, cross-border M&A as a percentage of global deal volume remains near a five-year high. Japan, which is undergoing an economic renaissance, will continue to shine under new Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae, corporate governance reforms and growing interest from businesses and sponsors. —Michal Katz, head of investment and corporate banking at Mizuho Americas
M&A activity will remain strong, but the exit environment for high-multiple investments will remain difficult in 2019 and 2021. —Eric Zinterhofer, Founding Partner, Searchlight Capital Partners
Venture capital-backed startups will begin to merge, becoming less likely partners with the companies that typically compete for deals. This trend started in 2025 and will accelerate as startups look for ways to sustain growth and achieve scale for a potential public listing or PE exit. —Arvind Purushotham, head of Citi Ventures
Secondary level, bidding, etc.
A defining trend in 2026 will be the rise of secondary markets for private investment. As startups remain private longer and traditional IPOs become less frequent, investors are increasingly seeking liquidity solutions through GP-led continuation vehicles, structured secondary markets and other private market mechanisms. —Kal Amin, Managing Partner, 1848 Ventures
While we believe liquidity will return to private equity in 2026, we expect secondary market trading volumes to reach new highs in 2026, following record volumes in 2025. Why? Because we believe that as distributions come, capital needs will increase, leaving many LPs to remain over-allocated to private equity for some time to come. Limited partners are becoming more active in managing private equity portfolios in good times and bad. Therefore, we predict that secondary market trading volume will reach $250B in 2026. ——Yann Robard, Managing Partner of Dawson Partners
The secondary market is going to be noisy. The ongoing IPO drought will conflict with the boom in registered alternatives, further accelerating the expansion of the secondary market—As new retail capital accelerates, institutional capital still dominates. As premiums rise, positions change hands faster, and a “hot potato” environment introduces new structural risks, be prepared to exchange views on private company valuations at community gatherings. —Larry Aschebrook, founder and managing partner of G Squared
By 2026, tender offers will not be limited to the largest private companies. As competition for talent intensifies and employees grow increasingly impatient with a lack of liquidity, mid-term companies will use tendering as a lever for core morale and retention. As predictable liquidity becomes a competitive advantage, led by ElevenLabs and Temporal, you’ll see more companies publicly announce tenders. —Nick Bunick, Principal, NewView Capital
With the economy growing at a surprisingly solid pace and inflation remaining high, the Fed has no reason, let alone urgency, to cut rates further. That means policy is unlikely to ease significantly in the near term, keeping rates higher than many expectations and likely disappointing investors unless inflation falls sharply or employment unexpectedly weakens. –PhD. Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel
See you tomorrow,
Ellie Garfunkel
X： @agarfinks
e-mail: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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venture capital
– first day data centerSingapore-based data center platform signs final agreement for US$2 billion Series C financing, led by coat and joined by others.
– interos.aiis an Arlington, Virginia-based developer of supply chain risk management software that raises $20 million in funding blue owl capital and structural capital.
– abnormala San Francisco-based platform that aims to change the way artificial intelligence talks about brands and products, raises $3.6 million in funding Box Group, long travel venture capital, yes Combinerand others.
private equity
– Alignment capital Partners obtained amco industrya building envelope, roofing and waterproofing consulting services company located in Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– JC Flowers obtained elephant Insuranceis an auto insurance company based in Richmond, Virginia. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– oakley capital Obtain a majority stake glassis a provider of loan administration and bond trustee services headquartered in London, UK. this Kaiser A minority stake was also acquired. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– wingman grow Partners Obtain a majority stake interactive essayis a debt collection software developer based in Vancouver, Washington. Financial terms were not disclosed.
quit
– bridge point Agree to acquire interaction patha restructuring and financial advisory firm based in London, UK, from Haiger Capital. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Frontline road safetya portfolio company Bain capitalobtained surface Prepare technologya road safety company based in New Kingston, Pa., from ruler capital. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– TPG Obtain a majority stake Truswellis a food industry regulatory, compliance and traceability software developer based in Beaverton, OR. this riverside company. Financial terms were not disclosed.
Others
– Coin library Agree to acquire liquidation companya prediction markets company based in San Francisco. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Domacaba Agree to acquire avant-garde systemis a turnstile control company located in Clarksville, Indiana. Financial terms were not disclosed.
initial public offering
– Actis OncologyThe Boston, Massachusetts-based biotech company focused on solid tumors plans to raise up to $212.4 million by offering 11.8 million shares on Nasdaq at a price range of $16 to $18. The company reported revenue of $6 million for the year ended Sept. 30. MPM bioshock, Life Venture Capital, Ecology-Capitaland Blue Owl Capital Holdings Return to the company.
Fund + Fund of Funds
– antlersThe Singapore-based venture capital firm has raised $160 million for its second fund, which focuses on early-stage companies in artificial intelligence and other areas.
people
– Menlo venture capitalis a venture capital firm headquartered in Menlo Park, California. Deborah Carrillo Partners.
– spectrum fairis a growth equity firm headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, San Francisco, and London, England. Michael Radonic and matt Neidlinger To the Managing Director.