President Donald Trump late Wednesday signed a funding package passed by the House of Representatives, ending a record 43-day shutdown as the government begins to reopen. But the White House said inflation and employment data that was skipped during the shutdown and released just weeks before the Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates in December may be permanently lost.
“Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system because the October CPI and jobs reports may never be released,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Tell Interview with reporters on Wednesday. “All economic data released will be permanently damaged, leaving Fed policymakers blindsided at a critical time.”
The shutdown began on Oct. 1 and lasted nearly two weeks into November as Republicans and Democrats clashed over spending packages and funding for the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium tax credits, which are set to expire at the end of 2025, leading to potential spikes in premiums for millions of Americans. The Senate will vote on the issue next month as part of the just-passed spending plan.
The White House said official data on last month’s inflation and employment that had been delayed may never be released as the government begins to reopen on Thursday.
It will be the first time the government’s monthly economic indicator data has been missed since tracking began. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) staff were furloughed during the government shutdown, preventing the agency from collecting data throughout October.
Established in 1948 and conducted jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Current Population Survey polls approximately 60,000 households each month. Data collected from the survey are used to generate the Bureau of Labor Statistics’Employment status,” a comprehensive official employment report.
“For the first time in more than 900 months, the Current Population Survey (CPS) may not be able to collect monthly information from a representative sample of U.S. households about whether they are working or looking for work,” said the Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an independent coalition of leading statistical, business and research organizations. wrote Wednesday on its website.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics first published of a country consumer price index Consumer Price Index (CPI) or inflation data based on 1921 data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
A Reuters survey of 105 economists showed that despite gaps in the data, a majority of 80% predicted the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10. That would bring rates down to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive percentage point decline.
The Fed last cut interest rates at its October meeting, and although the government did not release monthly data on employment and inflation, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell explain The decision comes amid signs that the labor market is cooling and inflation is moderating.
Some economists believe this trend is continuing.
“The general feeling is that the labor market still looks relatively weak, which is one of the key reasons why we think the FOMC will go ahead with its December rate cut,” said Abigail Watt, UBS U.S. economist. Tell Reuters.
However, other economists are not so sure. Torsten Sløk, Chief Economist Apollo Global Managementit is estimated that prices for 55% of the items that make up the CPI have risen by more than 3%, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target inflation rate.
“This is why it will be difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates in December,” Sløk wrote Wednesday.