China’s factory activity slows in October, not expected, private watchdog shows

In October, China’s factory growth was hit by market expectations, new export orders, as new export orders fell, as the US trade tensions with the US, according to a separate survey released on Monday.

China General PMI RatingDog compiled by S&P Global, decreased to 50.6 in October from six months 51.2 In a September Reuters poll, 8.9 analysts had no expectations.

Trade respondents attributed new export orders to “increasing trade uncertainty”.

New businesses and output expanded at a slower pace in October than in the previous month, as business confidence fell to a six-month low, the survey showed. “In assessing the one-year outlook for manufacturing, firms rose the least in six months,” he said.

A gauge of factory employment, however, showed its first expansion since March, rising to the highest level since August 2023.

Leaving the benchmark 50-point-of-50 mark released last Friday, it was better than the official survey released last Friday, which came in at 49.0, his worst contraction in six months.

Private surveys conducted in the past by Caixin and S&P Global generally paint a better picture than official surveys in recent years because they focus more on export-oriented manufacturers.

RatingDog’s own survey covers 650 manufacturers and collects responses in the second half of each month, while PMI’s official research A larger sample More than 3000 companies at the end of the month.

With the expansion of the US-China trade agreement and expected manufacturing output may be resolved in the coming months, the coming months, the coming months, as this business confidence is stable, managing director of Asia at OCBC Bank JSC and head of AZI Asia-Macro research.

China and USA the trade is settled Last week, US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, the stabilizer of relations in South Korea, fearing a global economic downturn.

By agreementThe US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from half-10% to 10%, reducing the overall tariff on Chinese goods to 47%, ending export controls on rare metals to China.

The US can suspend enforcement of the “intrusion rule” and section 301 “intrusion rule” and section 301 of US export controls.

Beijing also faces anti-terrorist and anti-dumping probes into US chip companies, including Americans NVIDIA CORP and Quallcomm Inc were included, The White House said on Saturday. Beijing will continue to buy American soybeans and other agricultural and energy products.

Goldman Sachs last week raised its 2025 GDP forecast for China, determined to boost US trade and Beijing’s competitiveness and further boost exports. The Wall Street Bank expects China’s real GDP growth to reach 5% this year, 4.8% in 2026, and 4.9% to 4.3%, respectively.

Since the beginning of the year, Chinese manufacturers have sought to diversify their export markets, since the beginning of the year to rely on the US and even more Southeast Asian and European markets. US exports to China declined in April, down from half the annual figures in April compared to the corresponding period of this year compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

This decline was largely offset by increased exports to Southeast Asia It jumped from 14.7% from SeptemberIn the European Union, it grew by 8.2%, and Africa by more than 28%. In the first three quarters of this year, China’s total exports rose 6.1%, while imports fell 1.1%.

Despite steady exports, the world’s second-largest economy has shown new signs of growth will slow down to 4.8% in the third quarterhis slowest in a year. Investments in core assets, which include real estate, unexpectedly contracted 0.5% in the first nine months of the year, the first decline since the pandemic hit in 2020.

The high base in the fourth quarter of last year is a GDP growth 5.4% – Behind the stimulus measures in September, the growth rate will be strongly measured in September, which will be the growth rate in the quarter, reports EVERCORE ISI Sheet State, said on Sunday.

A drop in government consumption subsidies and a prolonged housing slump will continue to dampen growth next year, Wang added.