Another administration of the US President Donald Trump has brought a Tectonic shift to European Security Calculus. European leaders have sent European leaders to shout due to the increasing concern about American retreating and the collapse of the second war -free security system.
Prior to the German election last month, Frederick Merz, the head of the Christian Democratic Union, who was already expected to become a German Vice -Chancellor, said: “At least two European nuclear power in the British and French – at least nuclear security in France and France can also apply.
Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron said, “In reply to Merz, he has decided to” open a strategic debate over the protection of our allies in European continents “from our (nuclear).
The proposal of some types of European nuclear sharing systems with France and the United Kingdom is not new to prevent Moscow’s threats. The versions of them have been planted around Decades??
But today, resurrectioning this proposal is not just a geographical political misconception; This is a strategic dead end. It misinterpreted both the atomic balance of the power and the existing risk of further disrupting the security architecture of Europe. Instead of encouraging determination, this gambit is at risk of accelerating the extreme volatility trying to prevent it.
During the increasing uncertainty of the United States-Russia relations under the second Trump administration, Europe should make a highlight of the diplomatic investment on nuclear conscience from nuclear conscience.
The fantasy of European nuclear sharing
European nuclear sharing founders proposal on arithmetic and strategic reality. Russia’s nuclear arsenal contains 5,550 warheads, including hypersonic aangard glyde vehicles and Saramat Intercontinental Ballistic missiles (ICBMS). This is the combined angle-French stockpile of 515 warheads.
This disparity is not only quantitative; It is also theoretical. Moscow’s “Escalate to D-Escalete” policy represents the approach to the opposition to enhance the conflict created to force the concessions. The British and French nuclear weapons are a strategy, which is at least suited for restrictions, cannot resist.
Data on Defense Costs shows a thorough defect: European people do not have funds or technical ability to carry out their ambitious remote plans when implementing their ambitious remote plans.
Germany’s. In the meantime, France and the UK have traditional force multiplers – the world surveillance network, intelligence capabilities, or even the entire nuclear triads – which value the US extended detection. Although the European Union recently announced the expense of 800 billion-euro ($ 67 867 billion) on every European Union Nuclear Programs, the cold-launch of products required for reliability is still going to take decades.
Trying to replicate the NATO-column model at the European level ignores six decades of integrated command structures, and now fails to pay attention to hybrid dangers that define modern struggle.
What is more, changing one dependence with another does not solve anything. Supporters claim that nuclear protection protects, but the reality is that it can lead to strategic subjection.
Both France or the UK do not relinquish control over its atomic weapons and transfer it to the European Union. This means that the nuclear-boundary agreement will reduce the arrangement of the Franco-British Warhead warehoused system with no real agency in Germany and other European countries. This potemicine detection – all the ceremonies, no substance – will only hurt Washington.
Trump has already shown that if there is no benefit for the US strategic interest, he has nothing to abandon the allies. His recent movements of intelligence sharing and military assistance for Ukraine and his conditioning on military expenses have exposed NATO’s terrible criteria – the coalition has collapsed with shared purpose.
According to experts, Trump’s “Magician paper“Foreign policy clearly rejects strategic philanthropy. A European molecule will be scared of cocks and will virtue Trump’s practical global approach while reducing the harmony of NATO.
The European nuclear club will be deepened by encouraging researchist such as Russia and China to divert resources through the serious gaps of energy elasticity, defining durable economic production, durable economic production and 21st century power.
The economic argument connects foolishness. Regardless of the traditional ability, pouring billions of euros from limited resources of Europe into non -euros is not a state – this is not a generation of misconduct.
Self -discipline and financial realPallitic
The opportunity for the European Union is not in nuclear posting, but to revive weapons control and mediation. Serious weapon control framework has been disrupted due to the Ukraine attacks on the US strategic communication.
For Russia and the United States, the new start agreement deployed up to 1,550 is the last pillar of bilateral weapon control. In 226, his expiration will mark the first time from 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2, that the world’s nuclear superpower is working without a mutual verified limit – a new nuclear weapon race can be triggered.
It has the opportunity for Europe. Instead of pursuing an European nuclear umbrella, nuclear weapons can be tried to revive the interaction.
Austria, a member of the European Union, has already played a significant role in the Nuclear discussion in West and Iran, as well as the US-Russia-China tripartite weapons control discussion. This nuclear places as an ideal place to resume negotiations on the issue of reducing risk, especially when Washington is open to renew the Moscow.
Taking the initiative on nuclear weapons will be a kind of leadership that will reflect a more mature explanation of the security policy against the impossible nuclear dissolution.
Some critics talk to Russia’s aggression. Yet history shows that even the bitter opponents can cooperate with the control of weapons when it aligns interests. The agreement of the Intermediate-Ranj Nuclear forces of 198 77, which removed the 3,69 2 missiles, finally finalized after several years of tension between the USSR and the United States, at the beginning of the 1980s.
US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev did not succeed as the agreement was successful, but the destruction of missiles saved the weapons race in the weapon race and maintained the destroyed ordinance.
Today, Russia’s economy is declining during the war in Ukraine and during the event of a reduction in the cost of reduction, there is another agreement if weapons are created as a financial practical, not the idealism. Europe can help the broker on the agreement that serves all parties’ wallets and humanity.
The unnecessary results of Trump’s first-term nuclear gamboats are unnecessary-accelerated weapons racing, destroyed alliances and stimulating-consuming lessons. His second term, however, can give the clock on the day of the world Position 89 seconds at midnight.
Europe is now an option: to stick to the residues of cold war while burning the planet, or leading the safety pattern that preferred the existence of planets rather than Great-power vanity. This decision will define not only in the future of Europe but also all humanity.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and it is not necessary to reflect al -Jazir’s editorial role.