Sophocles’ ancient Greek drama “Antigone” warns that “no one loves messengers who bring bad news” and “no one will like the bearers of bad news.”
About 1900, Lewis Carroll in his 1865 classic Alice in Wonderland. “Top of the head! ” She exclaimed whenever information was provided that made her unhappy.
In the 20th century, George Orwell offered another version in his prescient masterpiece 1984: “Every record has been destroyed or forged, every book has been rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue, street and building has been renamed, every date has been changed. And, everyday and one-minute dates have been continued. History has stopped. History has stopped. Apart from endless endless gifts, the party is always right.”
So we come to August 2025, President Donald Trump’s disturbing dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner, Erika MecentarferImmediately after publishing a negative work report. On social media, Trump claimed there was no evidence that the commissioner “falsed work numbers.” He went on to say, “My numbers have been a long time. We did a great job. I believe the numbers are as false as before the election, and there are other times. So I fired her and I did the right thing.”
In short, is this Trump’s “Queen of Heart” moment, or is it more?
Examples of Russia
It’s hard besides Trump’s long-standing admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin. As we have recorded in the past, Putin has a history of rewriting inconvenient narratives. Rosstat, the official U.S. Bureau of Statistics, is in a long-term record of manipulating economic data to please Putin. Under pressure from the Kremlin, bad numbers have been revised and incredible statistics have been masked, especially since Putin’s Ukrainian invasion in 2022. Russian institutions have been “turning to new methodologies” and “recalculate data” at alarming frequency. Then there was open political intervention – Putting fired Ross Stat’s head, transferred institutional control to political appointees, and appointed blatant political choice as deputy secretary of the economy.
No wonder external observers, from international organizations to foreign investors, often issue alarms.Concerns about the reliability and consistency of the Kremlin economic version. “Putin now refuses to disclose major economic indicators, from foreign trade data, monthly output data on oil and gas, capital inflows and outflows, financial statements of major companies, central bank monetary basic data, foreign direct investment data, domestic value added by the industry, and data on loans and loans initiated, and even loan data from air transport agencies in the Russian Federation.
However, these are the main high-frequency flow statistics for GDP forecasts within the economic scope of the United States to China. Since the outbreak of the war, the IMF has clearly allowed Russia to violate its membership standards, which requires member states to disclose transparent, verifiable and comprehensive national profit and loss statistics. Without trusted information, the free market will not work. This is why foreign direct investment in Russia From over $100 billion to zeroand capital market activity has almost been frozen, with almost no IPOs, and there is little global interest in Russian securities.
Not just Russia
Of course, China is better. The official statistics of China are already like this Widely recognized As analysts manipulate and unfounded, rely on a wide range of unofficial or proxy indicators to assess the true state of China’s economy. These shadow measures cover everything from satellite imagery to nightlife activities to pollution in chimneys.
Even the senior Chinese economic official, Prime Minister Le Keqiang Confess in secret He doesn’t believe in the official GDP figures, but rather monitors railway freight, electricity consumption and bank loans paid.
Similarly, in 2022, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fired a series of senior economic officials who questioned his unconventional policy of lowering interest rates to resist inflation and simultaneously stimulate economic revival. Erdoğan Know howThe head of the Turkish Institute of Statistics, the bureau reported a 36% surge in inflation over the past year. The Royal Society of Statistics and the American Statistical Association jointly condemned the president’s “official statistics on political intervention” and urged him to allow the Institute of Statistics to “produce objective statistical information”, an important function of “ensure Turkey’s healthy democracy and maintaining the international credibility of its statistics.”
In Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro It is said that More than a dozen economists and consultants have been detained in recent months to curb any suggestions on the worsening of the financial crisis in its country.
Same as her head!
But this is the United States and should be different. Trump’s sudden firing of Mcentarfer surprised market analysts and economists of all political backgrounds.
Recently, on CNBC Elaine ChaoIt is a longtime Republican and former Trump Cabinet official (she told listeners in George W. Chao: “It is very, very difficult to tamper with or interfere with these numbers. The BLS is very concerned about the security of these numbers… If something goes wrong… these 40 people (do) (do) the final analysis will be said. So, it is extremely unlikely.”
Former BLS Specialist William BeachAnother Trump-appointed person posted on social media shortly after the fire opened on Friday, calling it “Totally unfoundedThe decision “set dangerous precedents and undermined the agency’s statistical mission.” Beach further criticized the president’s move on Sunday, saying his actions “destroyed the agency’s credibility.”
Trump’s opinion is small when Trump claims that the performance of BLS has been slipping. Concerns about the timeliness and accuracy of BLS data are long-standing and are significantly revised only a few months later. BLS and other statistical agencies have acknowledged the need to modernize their approach, but progress has been slow. After the Covid-19 interruption, despite attempts to improve its methodology, the work has been revised more widely than in the past. The most recent revision of Friday’s decline since the pandemic was to minus 250,000 jobs.
However, Trump accused BLS of pretending to work numbers that weakened his credibility, while Republican supporters emphasized his tendency to distort facts. He clearly made an impulsive decision to fire Mcentarfer, and he unfoundedly believed that the BLS revision was politically motivated, recalling so many authoritarian literary descriptions.
Revisions are the standard part of the BLS process and are critical to improving the accuracy of U.S. economic pictures when new data arrives. The average revision of about 51,000 jobs since 2003 is not a trivial figure in itself. While other possibilities may be suggested, Trump’s tariff policy has already put forward unprecedented levels of uncertainty about the uncertainty of the U.S. economy, matching only with 2020 – many economists expect a recession. Bloomberg convincingly proposes a possible link between the magnitude of negative work revisions and recession conditions.
Just as the uncertainty created by leading businesses around the world strive to drive the president’s economic policies, should we expect different outcomes from government agencies, which also face recruitment restrictions and resource cuts due to arbitrary Doge-led plans? In addition, the Trump administration’s decision to dissolve the Federal Statistical Advisory Committee in March eliminated important mechanisms to improve institutional performance, including modernizing data collection, tabulation and analysis. While concerns about BLS methods, such as dependency on enumerators rather than scanner data, are effective and worthy of attention, this is not the right way to solve these problems.
This is far from the first time Trump has subordinated statistical integrity to the political theater. Other notorious examples include how Trump has come after Assert incorrectly Hurricane Dorian will hit Alabama’s “95% chance” Persist in displaying tampering On the plain contradiction NOAA prediction. Or sometimes Trump asks Georgia Secretary State Brad Raffensperger “Finished me 11,000 votes“, insisting that he won the 2020 presidential election, Dismiss your own representative For example, Bill Barr and Chris Krebs, who refused to be with his electoral negligence.
Recently, in April 2025, Trump announced the “countdown” tariffs on Liberation Day not based on actual reciprocity trade barriers, but from Misleading formula Based on the trade deficit, leadership economists declare Trump’s number “made up” and”mistake. “Finally, there is Trump’s Regular inflation of the crowd At his rally, Ask his subordinates to claim his First job is the most popular person in history, with Nelson ratings, live numbers and subway Passengers attended much less than Barack Obama’s inauguration, Kellyanne Conway quoted “Alternative facts. “Look at literature.
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