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Donald Trump never won the Nobel Peace Prize. But he should be a strong contender for Charlemagne prize – which is given each year by the person making the biggest contribution to European unity.
The President of the United States faced Russia, with a damaging faith in the Alliance in NATO, threatening the EU with tariffs and boasted away from Europe. It all has an effect on Galvanizing in the EU. The basic steps toward the more unity of Europe – consumed for decades – no more today.
There are three key places to watch. The first is European defense; The second is the joint of European debt; The third is to heal breach between UK and EU.
Dramatically swings in European public opinion that develop these developments. art election Last week it was shown that 78 percent of British people treat Trump as a threat to the UK. About 74 percent of the Germans and 69 percent of French agree. To another electionFrance is marked as a “reliable partner” at 85 percent of Germans and Britain scored 78 percent – the US fell by 16 percent.
Many European leaders have agreed that Trump America is now a threat now, no matter how many of this force for diplomatic reasons. They are also uncomfortable knowing how to alliance with Transatlantic, now in the eighth decade, making them depend on American military support. This is not a question of money. The real Downer Dependencies is in the US technology and weapon.
Europeans can see how big VIOLENCE Ukrainians are in the aftermath of the Trump Administration decision to cut the flow of intelligence and weapon. So they follow a policy on two tracks. They have to delay the separation of American military support in Europe as possible, while preparing for that moment as possible.
That’s the logic behind the decision last week to allow the European Commission to raise € 150bn to spend the EU defense industry. New expenditure is likely to be concentrated in areas where European countries are more dependent on America, such as air defense.
Issuing the common European debt is not just a way of raising money for defense. It also offers the opportunity to strengthen the euro as a dollar option as a global reserve currency. Trump administration field means having a large global getetite for a substitute for treasuries as a safe asset.
The Taboo against the European European currency debt traditionally strong in Frugal Germany. It’s a part broken during the pandemic. Now it is likely to be destroyed. Friedrich Merz, which is the next Chancellor in Germany, who also transfers the national expenditure of defense and infrastructure from the constitutional limits of his country in spectitutional disability. The past fiscal disudence means Germany has a lot more space to borrow than the severe debt of France or Britain.
A form of military keynesianism prevents the largest European economy. As a leading French businessman puts it on me, with more than touching ambivalence: “The Germans are clear. So they can’t sell their cars. So they make tanks.”
Trump’s last favor in Europe is to facilitate post-brexit rapprochement between EU and UK. Sir Keir Starmmer and Emmanuel Macron, British and French leaders who work together in Ukraine. They can form a strong triumvirate with Merz.
A mechanism for increasing military spending can be a new defense fund in Europe European, which Britain can participate. It has an added attribute of the UK and the EU a new form of co-operate avoiding the opening of the Pandora Brexit box.
The hope of healing certain injuries Brexit underlines it is not just a threat to the threat for Europe. This is also a time of opportunity. Europe can give a stronger business environment than in American Trump – which can be seen in relative stocks in the US and Europe stocks.
While the Trump administration increases the attack of US universities, there is also a chance to attract leading researchers in Europe. The wage and currency of research between North America and Europe is large. But the total amount of money involved is small, compared to the amount thrown by defense.
There are many disagreements and road failures to more unity in Europe. France and Germany have already ranged how new EU defense funds cost.
Every combat like this will eat doubt of those who say that Europe will never get the move on it. There are similar doubts and disabilities of frequent roads in the original European and Steel sign in the 1950s and a currency in the 1990s. But European leaders have reached there at last because the political imperative imperative agrees.
All the great front jumps for European Unity caused Geopolitical Shocks – First the end of the Second World War; then the end of cold war. Today, Trump’s good will, we look at the end of the transatlantic alliance. Europe replied with energy and invention of the last two many challenges. It can be done again.